Hello there!
Following what I believed to be an interesting discussion on Twitter about Libya, I was directed to wards my fellow tweep’s blog on the subject (which you can find by clicking here) and felt the need to post a longer, more considered response than Twitter allows. And seeing as most of my blog entires here have been purely local for a long time, I felt like changing that by posting my comments here too.
TTFN
Gareth.
ON LIBYA.
There are several reasons why I disagree with your concerns here.
Libya and Afghanistan are worlds apart, and this is reflected in both the nature of their opposition/dictatorships and our involvement. AFG is deprived to an extent we can barely imagine over here. It has little infrastructure, a very poorly educated people, has rarely been governed effectively including by the Taliban, has little in the way of meaningful economic activity internally or externally other than heroin production, and indeed there was little support for or planning of nation-building for after the conflict.
In Libya you have a country that is almost the mirror opposite in terms of wealth creation, population education, infrastructure (including communications), and the opposition is d=both more defined and purposeful than anything we have seen in Afghanistan, even today.
A big mistake in iraq was dismantling the entire state from law enforcement to education in order to clear out all Ba’athist elements. This is not a mistake that will be made in Libya. There IS an opposition in Libya, which cannot be said of Afghanistan which was always a vastly under-developed feudal/tribal society. Yes, Libya has tribes, but they are of far less importance in this well educated society than in Afghanistan or the importance that Islamic factions played in iraq for example.
The international presence, and therefore interest, in Libya is also much greater than it ever has been in Afghanistan. This is reflected not only in the number of international companies who have been operating in Libya but also the international workforce AND the international governmental support given to the NTC since these events began. All of these things are as far from Afghanistan as you can imagine, and in fact bear closer inspection to Iraq. yet even in comparison with Iraq the positions in Libya are a huge improvement over that country under Saddam or since and our intervention has learned many lessons from that sorry failure.
So I believe your comparison with Afghanistan is wide of the mark, and even the closer one with Iraq gives us much more cause for hope than you probably believe.
And as for the coalition that is the NTC falling apart, of course it will. That is what we call democracy, with different parties and groups presenting themselves to Libyans in the coming months in advance of their first elections.
If that coalition turned out to be nothing but a single alternative power base, installing a new dictatorship, elective or otherwise, we would rightfully bemoan the situation.
As one regular Tweeter on this subject noted, “For those worrying about Libya’s future: it might get worse, but it has never had a better chance to get better.”
Yes you disliked our intervention, but instead of looking for reasons for it to fail, why not seek to give advice and support as 6 million Libyans stand on the edge of what could be achieving freedom and democracy for the first time, at the cost of the blood of their sons and daughters.